Volume 49, September 2015, Pages 655–671
Open Access
Abstract
The
German government has set itself the target of reducing the country׳s
GHG emissions by between 80 and 95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.
Alongside energy efficiency, renewable energy sources are set to play
the main role in this transition. However, the large-scale deployment of
renewable energies is expected to cause increased demand for critical
mineral resources. The aim of this article is therefore to determine
whether the transformation of the German energy system by 2050
(“Energiewende”) may possibly be restricted by a lack of critical
minerals, focusing primarily on the power sector (generating,
transporting and storing electricity from renewable sources). For the
relevant technologies, we create roadmaps describing a number of
conceivable quantitative market developments in Germany. Estimating the
current and future specific material demand of the options selected and
projecting them along a range of long-term energy scenarios allows us to
assess potential medium- or long-term mineral resource restrictions.
The main conclusion we draw is that the shift towards an energy system
based on renewable sources that is currently being pursued is
principally compatible with the geological availability and supply of
mineral resources. In fact, we identified certain sub-technologies as
being critical with regard to potential supply risks, owing to
dependencies on a small number of supplier countries and competing uses.
These sub-technologies are certain wind power plants requiring
neodymium and dysprosium, thin-film CIGS photovoltaic cells using indium
and selenium, and large-scale redox flow batteries using vanadium.
However, non-critical alternatives to these technologies do indeed
exist. The likelihood of supplies being restricted can be decreased
further by cooperating even more closely with companies in the supplier
countries and their governments, and by establishing greater resource
efficiency and recyclability as key elements of technology development.
Keywords
- Critical minerals;
- Renewable energy;
- Electricity supply;
- Energy transformation;
- Germany