Volume 197, May 2016, Pages 164–170
Highlights
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- Technological advances are allowing for the possibility of restoring extinct species.
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- Research is required to determine if de-extinction is feasible under anthropogenic change.
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- There is extensive mismatch between historic and future suitability for de-extinction candidates.
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- Each candidate has increased suitable climatic space beyond their indigenous range.
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- Appropriate candidate selection and explicitly stated goals are required before moving forward.
Abstract
De-extinction
is becoming potentially feasible for restoring extinct species in the
wild, but research is required to determine the likelihood of success in
light of contemporary and future environmental change. We assessed
1900–2100 change in suitable climate and land cover in the historic
range of Carolina parakeet (Conuropsis carolinensis), ivory-billed woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) and passenger pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius),
in North America. Parakeet and woodpecker historic range currently
remains climatically-favourable, but intensified land use has broadly
reduced habitat in contemporary landscapes. For passenger pigeon, more
substantive loss in climate and land cover suitability exists in both
the historic full range and primary breeding range. Long-term climate
and land cover projections suggest that improved habitat suitability and
increased potential future distribution outside historic ranges are
likely for each de-extinction candidate. While such changes could
improve probability of success for de-extinction programs, extensive
mismatch between historic and future habitat suitability highlights the
potential risks of reviving species that may colonize novel geographic
space. To date, potential long-term negative effects of de-extinction
programs to ecosystems outside historic ranges have not been elucidated,
making this a priority concern for any serious proposal. To address
whether benefits of reinstating extinct species to historic ecosystems
outweigh risks to extant species outside their historic range will
require extensive ecological, social and economic analyses that extend
beyond that conducted to-date for this potentially transformational
conservation tool.
Keywords
- De-extinction;
- Conservation translocation;
- Climate change;
- Niche modelling;
- Carolina parakeet;
- Ivory-billed woodpecker;
- Passenger pigeon
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
