CMAJ. 2016 Nov 1;188(16):1147-1153. Epub 2016 Sep 19.
- 1Department
of Family Medicine (Turin), Department of Community Health Sciences
(Turin, Manns, Hemmelgarn), Institute of Public Health (Turin, Manns,
Hemmelgarn) and Department of Medicine (Saad, Jun, Tonelli, Ma, Barnabe,
Manns, Hemmelgarn), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.
turin.chowdhury@ucalgary.ca.
- 2Department of Family
Medicine (Turin), Department of Community Health Sciences (Turin, Manns,
Hemmelgarn), Institute of Public Health (Turin, Manns, Hemmelgarn) and
Department of Medicine (Saad, Jun, Tonelli, Ma, Barnabe, Manns,
Hemmelgarn), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
Lifetime
risk is a relatively straightforward measure used to communicate
disease burden, representing the cumulative risk of an outcome during
the remainder of an individual's life starting from a disease-free index
age. We estimated the lifetime risk of diabetes among men and women in
both First Nations and non-First Nations populations using a cohort of adults in a single Canadian province.
METHODS:
We
used a population-based cohort consisting of Alberta residents from
1997 to 2008 who were free of diabetes at cohort entry to estimate the
lifetime risk of diabetes among First Nations and non-First Nations
people. We calculated age-specific incidence rates with the person-year
method in 5-year bands. We estimated the sex- and index-age-specific
lifetime risk of incident diabetes, after adjusting for the competing
risk of death.
RESULTS:
The cohort included 70 631 First Nations and 2 732 214 non-First Nations
people aged 18 years or older. The lifetime risk of diabetes at 20
years of age was 75.6% among men and 87.3% among women in the First Nations group, as compared with 55.6% among men and 46.5% among women in the non-First Nations group. The risk was higher among First Nations people than among non-First Nations people for all index ages and for both sexes. Among non-First Nations people, men had a higher lifetime risk of diabetes than women across all index ages. In contrast, among First Nations people, women had a higher lifetime risk than men across all index ages.
INTERPRETATION:
About 8 in 10 First Nations people and about 5 in 10 non-First Nations
people of young age will develop diabetes in their remaining lifetime.
These population-based estimates may help health care planners and
decision-makers set priorities and increase public awareness and
interest in the prevention of diabetes.
© 2016 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.
