June 10 1610 - 1st Dutch settlers arrive (from NJ), to colonize Manhattan Island

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Explorations in Economic History

Volume 49, Issue 3, July 2012, Pages 277–290

Smallpox and Native American mortality: The 1780s epidemic in the Hudson Bay region

• Ann M. Carlos^a, ,
• Frank D. Lewis^{b, ,}

doi:10.1016/j.eeh.2012.04.003

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Abstract

The smallpox epidemic of 1781–82 in the Hudson Bay region is said to have devastated the native population, causing mortality of at least 50%. We reassess this claim using a four-pronged approach. First, we total smallpox deaths reported by two fur trading posts that were in the midst of the epidemic. Second, we review case fatality rates in other smallpox outbreaks, and discuss the likely incidence of the disease among Native Americans. Third, we analyse trade during the period of the epidemic. Fourth, we estimate the native population prior to the epidemic based on the carrying capacity of the region. All four approaches lead to a similar conclusion. Mortality from smallpox was likely under 20%, which is much less than previously asserted.

JEL classification

• N31;
• I13;
• J11;
• O15;
• Z10;
• N30

Keywords

• Smallpox;
• Native Americans;
• Fur trade;
• Population;
• Health

Corresponding author. Fax: + 1 613 533 6668.

Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.