In this TPP study, the authors find:
- TPP would generate net losses of GDP in the United States and Japan.
For the United States, they project that GDP would be 0.54 percent
lower than it would be without TPP, 10 years after the treaty
enters into force. Japan’s GDP is projected to decrease 0.12
- Economic gains would be negligible for other participating countries –
less than one percent over ten years for developed countries and
less than three percent for developing ones. These projections are
similar to previous findings that TPP gains would be small for many
- TPP would lead to employment losses in all countries,
with a total of 771,000 lost jobs. The United States would be the
hardest hit, with a loss of 448,000 jobs. Developing economies
participating in the agreement would also suffer employment losses, as
higher competitive pressures force them to curtail labor incomes and
increase production for export.
- TPP would lead to higher inequality,
as measured by changes in the labor share of national income. The
authors foresee competitive pressures on labor income combining
with employment losses to push labor shares lower, redistributing
income from labor to capital in all countries. In the United
States, this would exacerbate a multi-decade downward trend.
- TPP would lead to losses in GDP and employment in non-TPP countries. In large part, the loss in GDP (3.77 percent) and employment (879,000) among non-TPP developed countries would be driven by losses in Europe, while developing country losses in GDP (5.24%) and employment (4.45 million) reflect projected losses in China and India.