Volume 193, January 2016, Pages 103–114
- a Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, 135 Skok Hall, 2003 Upper Buford Circle, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
- b USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 1992 Folwell Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
- Received 24 February 2015, Revised 16 October 2015, Accepted 21 October 2015, Available online 4 December 2015
Highlights
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- We use models to inform site-scale decision-making in the face of climate change.
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- We developed linked metapopulation and spatial models for a rare grassland orchid.
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- We assess climate change and management scenarios to propose adaptation strategies.
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- Preventing further invasion and protecting groundwater recharge areas are critical.
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- Monitoring can inform when to shift from resilience to higher-risk strategies.
Abstract
Incorporating
climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population
scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized
climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting
impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially
explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a
conservation planning approach for situations of high uncertainty. We
developed dynamic, linked habitat suitability and metapopulation models
using RAMAS GIS to consider management and monitoring options for a
grassland reserve in Minnesota (USA) in order to support a
hydrologically sensitive rare orchid (Cypripedium candidum). We
evaluated 54 future scenarios combining changes in drought frequency,
increased depth to water table, and multiple configurations of increased
invasive species cover and management. Simulation results allowed us to
prioritize adaptation strategies and monitoring guidelines to inform
adaptive management for our model system. For example, preventing
further spread of invasive species into the current C. candidum
population is an important low-risk resilience strategy for this site.
However, under more serious climate change scenarios, higher-risk
strategies, such as protecting critical recharge areas, become
essential. Additionally, allocating limited monitoring resources toward
detecting changes in depth to water table and assessing C. candidum
population responses to severe drought will more efficiently inform
decisions about when to shift from low-risk resilience approaches to
higher-risk resistance and facilitation strategies. Applying this
scenario-based modeling approach to other high-priority populations will
enable conservation decision-makers to develop sound, cost-effective,
site-specific management and monitoring protocols despite the
uncertainties of climate change.
Keywords
- Cypripedium candidum;
- Habitat suitability;
- Metapopulation model;
- Monitoring;
- Invasion;
- Rare plants
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