Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change.

Environ Res. 2016 Jul 28;151:130-144. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2016.07.033. [Epub ahead of print]

Özkan ޹, Vitali A², Lacetera N², Amon B³, Bannink A⁴, Bartley DJ⁵, Blanco-Penedo I⁶, de Haas Y⁴, Dufrasne I⁷, Elliott J⁸, Eory V⁹, Fox NJ¹⁰, Garnsworthy PC¹¹, Gengler N¹², Hammami H¹², Kyriazakis I¹³, Leclère D¹⁴, Lessire F⁷, Macleod M⁹, Robinson TP¹⁵, Ruete A¹⁶, Sandars DL¹⁷, Shrestha S⁹, Stott AW⁹, Twardy S¹⁸, Vanrobays ML¹², Ahmadi BV⁹, Weindl I¹⁹, Wheelhouse N⁵, Williams AG¹⁷, Williams HW²⁰, Wilson AJ²¹, Østergaard S²², Kipling RP²³.

Author information

• ¹Department of Animal and Aquacultural Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Biosciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Post Box 5003, Ås 1430, Norway.
• ²University of Tuscia, Department of Agriculture and Forestry Science (DAFNE), Via San Camillo De Lellis, snc, Viterbo 01100, Italy.
• ³Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering Potsdam-Bornim (ATB), Max-Eyth-Allee 100, Potsdam 14469, Germany.
• ⁴Wageningen UR Livestock Research, P.O. Box 338, Wageningen 6700 AH, The Netherlands.
• ⁵Moredun Research Institute, Pentlands Science Park, Bush Loan, Penicuik EH26 0PZ, UK.
• ⁶Animal Welfare Subprogram, IRTA, Veinat de Sies s/n, Monells, Girona 17121, Spain.
• ⁷Nutrition Unit, Animal Production Department, Veterinary Faculty, University of Liège, Boulevard de Colonster 20, Bât. B43, Liège 4000, Belgium.
• ⁸ADAS UK Ltd, 4205 Park Approach, Thorpe Park, Leeds LS15 8GB, UK.
• ⁹Scotland's Rural College (SRUC), Peter Wilson Building, Kings Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK.
• ¹⁰Scotland's Rural College (SRUC), Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Roslin Institute Building, Easter Bush, Midlothian EH25 9RG, UK.
• ¹¹University of Nottingham, School of Biosciences, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough LE12 5RD, UK.
• ¹²Agriculture, Bio-engineering and Chemistry Department, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liège, Passage des Déportés, 2, Gembloux B-5030, Belgium.
• ¹³School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Newcastle University, King's Road, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK.
• ¹⁴Ecosystems Services and Management program (ESM), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria.
• ¹⁵Livestock Systems and Environment, International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, Kenya.
• ¹⁶Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Ullsvägen 16, Uppsala 75007, Sweden.
• ¹⁷School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Cranfield University, Bedford MK43 0AL, UK.
• ¹⁸Institute of Technology and Life Sciences at Falenty (P122) Malopolska Research Centre in Krakow, ul. Ulanow 21B, 31-450 Krakow, Poland.
• ¹⁹Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering Potsdam-Bornim (ATB), Max-Eyth-Allee 100, Potsdam 14469, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
• ²⁰Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences (IBERS), Aberystwyth University, 1st Floor, Stapledon Building, Plas Gogerddan, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion SY23 3EE, UK.
• ²¹The Pirbright Institute, Pirbright, Woking, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK.
• ²²Department of Animal Science, Aarhus University, Tjele 8830, Denmark.
• ²³Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences (IBERS), Aberystwyth University, 1st Floor, Stapledon Building, Plas Gogerddan, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion SY23 3EE, UK. Electronic address: rpk@aber.ac.uk.

Abstract

Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change.
Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

KEYWORDS:

Animal health; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Modelling; Pathogens