Volumes 500–501, 1 December 2014, Pages 155–172
How “lucky” we are that the Fukushima disaster occurred in early spring: Predictions on the contamination levels from various fission products released from the accident and updates on the risk assessment for solid and thyroid cancers
Highlights
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- A GCM was used to assess impacts of FND during different seasons.
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- Transport and deposition of multiple radionuclides were compared.
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- 110 to 640 individuals are expected to die from solid cancers attributed to FND.
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- Expected fatalities would be 5 to 32% higher if the FND occurred another season.
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- Mortalities will be less than 5% of those who died from the tsunami (~ 20,000).
Abstract
The
present paper studies how a random event (earthquake) and the
subsequent disaster in Japan affect transport and deposition of fallout
and the resulting health consequences. Therefore, except for the
original accident in March 2011, three additional scenarios are assessed
assuming that the same releases took place in winter 2010, summer 2011
and autumn 2011 in order to cover a full range of annual seasonality.
This is also the first study where a large number of fission products
released from the accident are used to assess health risks with the
maximum possible efficiency. Xenon-133 and 137Cs are directly
estimated within the model, whereas 15 other radionuclides are
calculated indirectly using reported isotopic ratios. As much as 85% of
the released 137Cs would be deposited in continental regions
worldwide if the accident occurred in winter 2010, 22% in spring 2011
(when it actually happened), 55% in summer 2011 and 48% if it occurred
during autumn 2011. Solid cancer incidents and mortalities from
Fukushima are estimated to be between 160 and 880 and from 110 to 640
close to previous estimations. By adding thyroid cancers, the total
number rises from 230 to 850 for incidents and from 120 to 650 for
mortalities. Fatalities due to worker exposure and mandatory evacuation
have been reported to be around 610 increasing total estimated
mortalities to 730–1260. These estimates are 2.8 times higher than
previously reported ones for radiocaesium and 131I and 16%
higher than those reported based on radiocaesium only. Total expected
fatalities from Fukushima are 32% lower than in the winter scenario, 5%
that in the summer scenario and 30% lower than in the autumn scenario.
Nevertheless, cancer fatalities are expected to be less than 5% of those
from the tsunami (~ 20,000).
Graphical abstract
Keywords
- Fukushima;
- Seasonal scenarios;
- Health impact;
- Mortality risk;
- Morbidity risk
- Corresponding
author at: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
(LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Institut Pierre et Simon Laplace, L'Orme des
Merisiers, F-91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France. Tel.:
+ 33 1 6908 1278; fax: + 33 1 6908 3073.
Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
