Emerging evidence indicates that dragons can
no longer be dismissed as creatures of legend and fantasy, and that
anthropogenic effects on the world's climate may inadvertently be paving
the way for the resurgence of these beasts.
Long considered to be the stuff of legend, dragons cross
cultures and continents. Until recently, however, scant attention had
been paid to the fact that the commonality in cultural representations
of such creatures indicates something more sinister. From depictions in
Ancient Greek literature and Slavic myth, to the dragons of the East or
allusions in Zoroastrian scripture, the descriptions resonate. What if
these legends were rooted in truth? The differences in appearance — some
lack wings, some have multiple heads and some seem not to breathe fire —
once thought to reflect local traditions, can also readily be explained
by speciation.
The 800th anniversary of the signing of Magna Carta
in 1215 has sparked an unprecedented investigation of literary
resources from the early medieval period. One such document, uncovered
by chance under a pile of rusty candlesticks in a locked cupboard marked
“loste propertie” in the depths of the University of Oxford's Bodleian
Library, provides strong evidence that the field of fantastical beasts
requires urgent re-evaluation. Attributed to the monk Godfrey of
Exmouth, the treatise discusses many verified aspects of English history
but, crucially, proffers evidence that for millennia dragons have
periodically been a scourge to civilizations (Fig. 1).
Figure 1: Lizards of legend.
Dragons have somehow wormed their way
into the realm of fantasy, which belies the threat posed by them in the
twenty-first century.
Further work has revealed that the early medieval period was a
veritable paradise for dragons. This can be attributed to the period's
unusually warm temperatures (Fig. 2)
and an abundance of knights, the beasts' favourite combatant and food.
It was also a time when wealth and status were measured in terms of gold
and silver — the preferred nesting material for Western dragons. As a
result, the major needs for living, feeding and, crucially, relaxation
were readily available to dragons, allowing populations to flourish. The
roasting of flesh and the indiscriminate demolition of hovels and
castles became commonplace.
Figure 2: The rise and fall and rise again of dragons.
The relative frequency of 'dragons' in fictional literature (thick red line), as determined as a unigram probability4, with two historical reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature (decadal smoothing) shown in blue5 and purple6. Global temperatures have been measured since 1855 (thick black line5).
Temperature anomalies represent deviations from the 1961–90 reference
period. The rising incidence of dragons in the literature correlates
with rising temperatures, and suggests that these fire-breathing lizards
are being sighted more frequently. As a result, the large-scale 'Third
Stir' is deemed to be imminent.
As Godfrey of Exmouth attests, this was an era when humanity as a
whole was fully aware of the existence of dragons and all other magical
beings. It is likely that the persistent antisocial behaviour of
dragons, and the failure of seemingly powerful magical beings to combat
the scourge effectively, led to a deep-seated antipathy: witches became
kindling, wizards who dared to imagine a heliocentric Universe suffered
the indignity of trial and ridicule.
The combination of decreasing
temperatures and a sharp decline in the number of knights saw the onset
among dragons of The Great Sleep around the start of the fifteenth
century. Such a phenomenon is well recognized: many ectothermic beasts
enter a period of brumation (analogous to hibernation in endotherms)
under adverse food and climatic conditions. The Great Sleep coincided
with what is generally referred to as the Little Ice Age (Fig. 2).
Historical records demonstrate that this period was a time of relative
peace, at least with regard to dragon attacks. Many believed that
dragons — the fire-breathing species, at any rate — had become extinct
by the thirteenth or fourteenth century1.
This belief has further been extended to a perplexing level, whereby
conventional opinion now holds that dragons, and indeed all other
magical beings, are mere fantasy. Such a creed has been a blessing for
dragons, because it spelt an end to the persecutions. Witches are now
seen as crazy but harmless women, and wizards as senile old men with
nothing better to do than wander around folk festivals in funny hats.
The
calm was shaken briefly from 1586 to 1597 with The First Stir. Dragons
behave no differently from other ectotherms in their brumation
protocols, and they will periodically awaken from their slumber and
check to see whether outside conditions justify ending the torpor. With
their need to maintain extremely high temperatures in their buccal and
nasal furnaces, it is crucially important for the fire-breathing species
to ensure that the environmental conditions are energetically
favourable before breaking their dormancy: there must be warmth and
food. Fortunately, The First Stir coincided with the depths of the
Little Ice Age and a bewildering lack of knights. Thus, the decision to
return to slumber was made without hesitation. Although very few
witnessed the awakenings, those who did (including some highly respected
philosophers) were quick to record their astonishment in text (Fig. 2), but were immediately ridiculed by their peers and their writings relegated to the disrespected genre of fiction.
The
Second Stir, 1680–90, although generally considered smaller than the
first, produced similar results. Belief in dragons was virtually
restricted to youngsters — who are readily ignored — and a handful of
believing philosophers (scientists), who were acutely aware of how their
predecessors had been ostracized a century earlier and so chose to
remain mostly silent on sightings. This is reflected in the lower
frequency of dragons in the literature in this stir compared with the
first (Fig. 2).
The
shift in societal views of dragons from reality to fantasy has been
described by some as a kind of bewitchment. Newt Scamander2
suggests that there was a deliberate policy among those of a 'magical'
persuasion to hide the creatures. This is thought to have taken the form
of casting a neurotransfer spell that translocates all information on
magical phenomena held in the brain to a small lobe of the neocortex
exclusively reserved for imaginative thought. As a result, any reported
sightings are almost always done under the unconscious protection of
fictitious communication. (This view has been challenged in the light of
other cryptozoological phenomena such as the yeti or the Loch Ness
monster, although the evidence remains inconclusive and proponents have
largely been dismissed as unsuitable for responsible positions.)
It
would have been expected that humanity's ignorance of the dragon
situation would have been maintained were it not for a combination of
events in the past few decades. First, the global economic downturn has
led to a rise in the search for 'buried' treasure, and hoards that serve
as homes to resting dragons are an ideal way to bolster a failing
economic policy. This strategy of 'quantitative thieving' is highly
likely to provoke reprisals from slumbering dragons who awake to
discover that their nests have been stripped bare.
To make matters
worse, it seems that the 'block' on human awareness is occasionally
failing, as evidenced in 1976 when a scientist (ironically, a knight and
baron) published a non-fiction manuscript on dragons in Nature3.
Sluggish action on global warming is set to compound the problem, and
policies such as the restoration of knighthoods in Australia are likely
to exacerbate the predicament yet further by providing a sustained and
delicious food supply. It is now only a matter of time before The Third
Stir takes place, and this, to borrow a phrase from Godfrey of Exmouth,
will be the “bigge one”. Climatic conditions are rapidly reaching an
optimum for breeding dragons, and it is only a matter of time before the
neurotransfer spell loses its efficacy completely. Further research
into fireproof protective clothing is highly recommended — as is an
avoidance of honorific titles.
