Sci Rep. 2014 Sep 9;4:6297. doi: 10.1038/srep06297.
Petrological and seismic precursors of the paroxysmal phase of the last Vesuvius eruption on March 1944.
Abstract
Abrupt
transitions in style and intensity are common during volcanic
eruptions, with an immediate impact on the surrounding territory and its
population. Defining the factors trigger such sudden shifts in the
eruptive behavior as well as developing methods
to predict such changes during volcanic crises are crucial goals in
volcanology. In our research, the combined investigation of both
petrological and seismic indicators has been applied for the first time
to a Vesuvius
eruption, that of March 1944 that caused the present dormant state of
the volcano. Our results contribute to elucidate the evolution of the
conduit dynamics that generated a drastic increase in the Volcanic
Explosivity Index, associated to the ejection of huge amount of volcanic
ash. Remarkably, our study shows that the main paroxysm was announced
by robust changes in petrology consistent with seismology, thus
suggesting that the development of monitoring methods
to assess the nature of ejected juvenile material combined with
conventional geophysical techniques can represent a powerful tool for
forecasting the evolution of an eruption towards violent behavior. This
in turn is a major goal in volcanology because this evidence can help
decision-makers to implement an efficient safety strategy during the
emergency (scale and pace of evacuation).
- PMID:
- 25199537
- [PubMed]
- PMCID:
- PMC4158333