Volume 73, December 2014, Pages 346–358
Highlights
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- 0.3 to 4.5 PBq of 137Cs may redistribute over Europe during one intense fire year.
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- 20 and 240 humans may suffer from solid cancers, of which 10–170 may be fatal.
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- Cancer incidents may be comparable to those predicted for Fukushima.
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- Insignificant changes in animal populations from the fires
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- Nutritional habits of the local populations may exacerbate exposure to radiation.
Abstract
Radioactive
contamination in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia after the Chernobyl
accident left large rural and forest areas to their own fate. Forest
succession in conjunction with lack of forest management started
gradually transforming the landscape. During the last 28 years dead wood
and litter have dramatically accumulated in these areas, whereas
climate change has increased temperature and favored drought. The
present situation in these forests suggests an increased risk of
wildfires, especially after the pronounced forest fires of 2010, which
remobilized Chernobyl-deposited radioactive materials transporting them
thousand kilometers far. For the aforementioned reasons, we study the
consequences of different forest fires on the redistribution of 137Cs.
Using the time frequency of the fires that occurred in the area during
2010, we study three scenarios assuming that 10%, 50% and 100% of the
area are burnt. We aim to sensitize the scientific community and the
European authorities for the foreseen risks from radioactivity
redistribution over Europe. The global model LMDZORINCA that reads
deposition density of radionuclides and burnt area from satellites was
used, whereas risks for the human and animal population were calculated
using the Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model and the computerized software
ERICA Tool, respectively. Depending on the scenario, whereas between 20
and 240 humans may suffer from solid cancers, of which 10–170 may be
fatal. ERICA predicts insignificant changes in animal populations from
the fires, whereas the already extreme radioactivity background plays a
major role in their living quality. The resulting releases of 137Cs
after hypothetical wildfires in Chernobyl's forests are classified as
high in the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). The estimated
cancer incidents and fatalities are expected to be comparable to those
predicted for Fukushima. This is attributed to the fact that the
distribution of radioactive fallout after the wildfires occurred to the
intensely populated Western Europe, whereas after Fukushima it occurred
towards the Pacific Ocean. The situation will be exacerbated near the
forests not only due to the expected redistribution of refractory
radionuclides (also trapped there), but also due to the nutritional
habits of the local human and animal population.
Graphical abstract
Keywords
- Chernobyl accident;
- Forest fires;
- Redistribution;
- Radionuclides;
- Risks
- Corresponding
author at: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
(LSCE), CEA–CNRS–UVSQ, Institut Pierre et Simon Laplace, L'Orme des
Merisiers, F-91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France. Tel.:
+ 33 1 6908 1278; fax: + 33 1 6908 3073.
Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
