Volume 37, March 2016, Pages 1–15
Highlights
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- Ongoing recultivation in areas with young, increasing rural population and higher yields.
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- 8.5 Mha of potentially available cropland among 47.3 Mha of abandoned cropland.
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- Potential contribution to global grain production, but socio-economic constraints.
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- Environmental trade-offs are relatively low compared with tropical frontiers.
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- Idle croplands not a silver bullet for the global food – carbon – biodiversity nexus.
Abstract
Further
cropland expansion might be unavoidable to satisfy the growing demand
for land-based products and ecosystem services. A crucial issue is thus
to assess the trade-offs between social and ecological impacts and the
benefits of converting additional land to cropland. In the former Soviet
Union countries, where the transition from state-command to
market-driven economies resulted in widespread agricultural land
abandonment, cropland expansion may incur relatively low costs,
especially compared with tropical regions.
Our
objectives were to quantify the drivers, constraints and trade-offs
associated with recultivating abandoned cropland to assess the
potentially available cropland in European Russia, western Siberia,
Ukraine and Kazakhstan—the region where the vast majority of post-Soviet
cropland abandonment took place. Using spatial panel regressions, we
characterized the socio-economic determinants of cropland abandonment
and recultivation. We then used recent maps of changes in cropland to
(i) spatially characterize the socio-economic, accessibility and soil
constraints associated with the recultivation of abandoned croplands and
(ii) investigate the environmental trade-offs regarding carbon stocks
and habitat for biodiversity.
Less cropland
abandonment and more recultivation after 2000 occurred in areas with an
increasing rural population and a younger labor force, but also improved
yields. Synergies were observed between cropland recultivation and
intensification over the 2000s. From 47.3 million hectares (Mha) of
cropland abandoned in 2009, we identified only 8.5 (7.1–17.4) Mha of
potentially available cropland with low environmental trade-offs and low
to moderate socio-economic or accessibility constraints that were
located on high-quality soils (Chernozems). These areas represented an
annual wheat production potential of ∼14.3 (9.6–19.5) million tons (Mt).
Conversely, 8.5 (4.2–12.4) Mha had high carbon or biodiversity
trade-offs, of which ∼10% might be attractive for cropland expansion and
thus would require protection from recultivation. Agro-environmental,
accessibility, and socio-economic constraints suggested that the
remaining 30.6 (25.7–30.6) Mha of abandoned croplands were unlikely to
provide important contributions to future crop production at current
wheat prices but could provide various ecosystem services, and some
could support extensive livestock production. Political and
institutional support could foster recultivation by supporting
investments in agriculture and rural demographic revitalization.
Reclaiming potentially available cropland in the study region could
provide a notable contribution to global grain production, with
relatively low environmental trade-offs compared with tropical
frontiers, but is not a panacea to address global issues of food
security or reduce land-use pressure on tropical ecosystems.
Graphical abstract
Keywords
- Land use;
- Cropland reclamation;
- Rewilding;
- Food production;
- Carbon;
- Biodiversity
Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
