Volume 77, June 2016, Pages 71–78
Social science perspectives on the bio-economy
Highlights
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- We estimate the effects of climate variability and change on agricultural revenues of small-scale farmers in Kenya.
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- We use a balanced panel household data set collected in 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2010 from eight agro-regional zones and climate data from 1980 to 2010.
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- We assess the effects of climate variability and change using a household fixed effects model.
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- Results imply that climate variability and change significantly affect smallholders livelihoods with greater effects in the Kenyan tea sector.
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- We also find that temperature has larger impacts on crop production than rainfall.
Abstract
Agriculture
is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy, contributing to food security
and employment of rural households. Climate variability and change have
adversely affected this sector and the situation is expected to worsen
in the future. We estimate the effect of climate variability and change
on revenue from all crops, maize and tea separately, using a household
fixed effects estimator. We find that climate variability and change
affects agricultural production but effects differ across crops.
Temperature has a negative effect on crop and maize revenues but a
positive one on tea, while rainfall has a negative effect on tea. We
find that tea relies on stable temperatures and consistent rainfall
patterns and any excess would negatively affect production. Temperature
has a greater impact on crop production than rainfall. Climate change
will adversely affect agriculture in 2020, 2030 and 2040 with greater
effects in the tea sector. Therefore, rethinking the likely harmful
effects of rising temperatures and increasing rainfall uncertainty
should be a priority in Kenya. Implementing adaptation measures at
national, county and farm levels as well as putting in place policies
that prevent destruction of the natural environment will assist to
address the challenges posed by climate variability and change.
Keywords
- Agriculture revenues;
- Climate change;
- Panel data;
- Tea;
- Maize;
- Kenya
© 2016 Royal Netherlands Society for Agricultural Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
