Volume 140, December 2015, Pages 11–22
Highlights
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- The cost of risk of silage deficit will decrease from the initially high levels.
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- Slightly increasing mean and stable variance of yields decreases the cost of risk.
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- Extra grassland and buffer storage are effective means of risk management.
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- The cost of risk management of silage deficit will still remain significant.
Cattle
feeding in Northern Europe is based on grass silage, but grass growth
is highly dependent on weather conditions. If ensuring sufficient silage
availability in every situation is prioritised, the lowest expected
yield level determines the cultivated area in farmers' decision-making.
One way to manage the variation in grass yield is to increase grass
production and silage storage capacity so that they exceed the annual
consumption at the farm. The cost of risk management in the current and
the projected future climate was calculated taking into account
grassland yield and yield variability for three study areas under
current and mid-21st century climate conditions. The dataset on
simulated future grass yields used as input for the risk management
calculations were taken from a previously published simulation study.
Strategies investigated included using up to 60% more silage grass area
than needed in a year with average grass yields, and storing silage for
up to 6 months more than consumed in a year (buffer storage). According
to the results, utilising an excess silage grass area of 20% and a
silage buffer storage capacity of 6 months were the most economic ways
of managing drought risk in both the baseline climate and the projected
climate of 2046–2065. It was found that the silage yield risk due to
drought is likely to decrease in all studied locations, but the drought
risk and costs implied still remain significant.
Keywords
- Silage grass;
- Risk management;
- Dairy farms;
- Buffer storage;
- Agricultural economics;
- Grassland modelling
Copyright © 2015 IAgrE. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
