Abstract
In
this article we examine factors affecting fortified wine consumption in
Russia by utilizing micro-level data from the Russian Longitudinal
Monitoring Survey (RLMS). A model with limited dependent variables has
been applied to the study. Our analysis shows that Russian males
demonstrate a persistent propensity to fortified wine consumption due to
its higher alcohol content. Our finding reflects the presence of
diminishing marginal effect by age, while the estimated coefficient for
marital status is negatively significant. Respondents from southern
regions do not opt for fortified wine. One explanation of this might be
that Krasnodar Province located in the South federal district is known
as one of Russia׳s major wine producers.
Keywords
- Fortified wine consumption;
- National Survey;
- Alcohol;
- Logistic regression;
- Russia
1. Introduction
The
favorable conditions on the world energy market in the first decade of
the twenty-first century enabled Russia to gain significant revenues
from the sale of oil and natural gas. As a result, Russia enjoyed steady
economic growth of 6.8% yearly in the period of 1999 through 2008 (World Bank, 2010). The Russian consumer price index dropped from 86% in 1999 to 11.4% in 2013 (Rosstat, 2015).
Relatively stable patterns of the country׳s growth path created a
sizable middle class that constituted more than one-third of the Russian
population (Ceccia et al., 2013).
The emergence of a Russian middle class with rising disposable income
had a positive impact on imports of food and consumer goods to the
country, which rose from 7.4 billion dollars in 2000 to 39.7 billion
dollars in 2014 (Rosstat, 2015). One of these goods is wine products whose import increased by 16% between 2012 and 2013 (Tang et al., 2015). In this context, the wine sector in Russia has the potential to grow in the future.
In Russia wine is considered to be the third choice of alcoholic beverage, following vodka and beer (Ceccia et al., 2013). According to the Wine Institute in 2012, 5.1% of the world wine consumption is attributed to this country.
Therefore,
investigating consumption patterns of wine products and their
determinants may provide some knowledge and insights about a relatively
new and fast growing market in a country that is located in both Europe
and Asia. The purpose of this study is to explore and examine factors
affecting fortified wine consumption from a national sample of the
Russian population. In 2013 more than 7% of the Russian wine market
consisted of fortified wine; this figure exceeds an analogous indicator
from several major markets such as United States − 1.8%, Great Britain −
5%, Germany − 1.6%, China − 2% and India − 2.2% (Market Line).
Most
of previous studies were conducted in Western and emerging wine
markets. Russian wine consumption patterns have received insignificant
attention in research literature except for a recent paper written by Ceccia et al. (2013).
In that study, the authors investigated the prospects for the export
for wine products to the Russian market. Based on their experimental
approach they concluded that there are three well-defined segments in
this market. Price, region of origin and presence of product certificate
are important among Russian consumers. However, this study does not
include socio-demographic, economic and regional factors that may
potentially affect wine consumption in Russia. Furthermore, their
analysis is based on three cities with limited coverage of survey
information. A more detailed analysis of this topic at a national level
is important.
The
reminder of the article is organized as follows: in the next section we
discuss previous studies on alcoholic beverages consumption in Russia.
Section three provides a detailed description of data and variables used
in the analysis. In section four we discuss methodology applied to the
topic. Section five touches on estimation results and the last section
highlights some concluding remarks.
2. Past studies
As
mentioned above there is only a single paper on wine consumption in
Russia. Other studies are focused on multidisciplinary approaches to
heavy drinking. In an earlier study, Bobak et al. (1999)
point out that alcohol consumption is more prevalent among males and it
is not connected either with sizable socio-economic differences with
changes in Russian society during a transition period.
Tekin (2004)
investigated the presence of a relationship between alcohol consumption
and labor market productivity in Russia. His empirical findings
indicate that such a correlation between variables of interest follows
an inverse U-shape. Moderate drinking habits appear to have a positive
impact on employment in cross sectional models. However, such an impact
seems to disappear once individual fixed effects are taken into account.
Baltagi and Geishecker (2006)
estimated a rational addiction model for alcohol consumption by
utilizing a panel data setting on a wave-by-wave basis. They emphasized
that this model may partially explain patterns and behavior of Russian
male drinkers. This model did not have significant effects for women.
Taplina (2007)
provides a concise description of the scale and dynamics of alcohol
consumption for the period between 1994 and 2002. Her analysis primarily
refers to the social and demographic aspects of immoderate drinking in
the Russian society. In her paper she points out that alcohol
consumption is an indicator of societal health. Public policy aimed at
improving people׳s welfare should encourage reduction of excess alcohol
consumption in this society.
In a study by Perman (2010)
he presents an analysis of drinking patterns in Russia at the time of
country׳s transition period. Despite the fact that during the 1990s
economic hardship was associated with a gradual decline in the purchase
of alcoholic beverages, homemade ethanol consumption increased
significantly which raised public concerns over this problem as drinking
counterfeit ethanol may seriously deteriorate Russian׳s health
conditions.
Herzfeld et al. (2014)
demonstrate that Russian males show a persistent propensity to heavy
drinking. They point out that relevant policy measures need to be
undertaken in order to address men as the most vulnerable demographic
cohort in the Russian society.
Keenan et al. (2014)
investigated alcohol consumption in Russian society from sociological
perspectives. Drinking patterns may affect relationship among people.
They argue that individuals who are not drinkers are more likely to
convert their relationship from cohabitation into marriage as compared
with frequent drinkers that suffer from instable and irregular
relationship.
To our
best knowledge the present study is the first examination of
determinants of fortified wine consumption in Russia. We believe that
findings of the present study may represent the attitudes and
preferences of the general Russian population regarding this product.
Certainly, this study will be useful for companies working or intending
to act in marketing of fortified wine in one of the largest markets in
the world.
3. Data
The
data utilized for the present article is taken from the Russian
Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). The RLMS is the most
comprehensive and nationally representative micro-level survey that is
regularly conducted in all of Russia׳s federal districts. This survey is
jointly coordinated and maintained by National Research University
Higher School of Economics and Russian Academy of Sciences together with
Carolina Population׳s Center at the University of North Carolina.
Information
collected as a result of these surveys is designed to monitor and track
the impact of state reforms on the welfare of country׳s population.
Therefore, data collected for RLMS comprises a wide range of information
on household and individual characteristics such as demographic
composition, income, expenditure, employment, politics, health status
and consumption of a wide range of food and non-food products, including
alcoholic beverages.
For
our analysis we make use of the recent individual data from the 2013
representative sample. The complete survey contains more than sixteen
thousand observations. Generally speaking, national level surveys have
missing values on certain questions that are not answered by
respondents. This information may touch on various questions which may
have both economic and non-economic characteristics. In our analysis we
are faced with missing information on variables of our interest as well.
In the RLMS the majority of survey participants did not respond to the
question about consumption of fortified wine. This category of
respondents was removed from our analysis. Hence, a list wise deletion
technique was applied that effectively tackles this issue. In the case
of a sensitive question such as income we substituted the mean value of
that variable from a country׳s federal district under study. For
instance, the average income from Central Federal District was used to
fill the missing value of income of respondents who were from this
particular district. Our final sample that covers all related
information on variables of interest comprises 3083 individual cross
sectional observations.
It
is important to emphasize that the list-wise deletion technique may
affect the statistical power of tests that rely upon large sample sizes.
Even though we include only about twenty percent of Russia׳s nationally
representative survey our sample still remains large. Absence of
responses on the dependent variable is not contingent on survey
questions and therefore, it may be considered as missing completely at
random.
The survey asks
respondents whether they consumed an alcohol containing beverage, in
the case of fortified wine, during the last thirty days. Then we
collected and used relevant covariates for our empirical analysis from
those participants who provided affirmative answers. Most of these
independent and control variables are ordinarily used in similar
studies. In our analysis we also included other predictors such as life
satisfaction, economic conditions, health status, smoking habits and
Russia׳s regions to see whether country specific information has any
impact on the variable of interest. Definitions and summary statistics
are presented in Table 1.
- Table 1. Definitions and summary statistics of the independent variables.
Variable description Frequency (percent) Mean Standard deviation Gender 0.505 0.50 1 If female 50.44 0 If male 49.56 Age 43.691 11.101 1 If 20–30 12.93 2 If 31–41 32.46 3 If 42–52 30.27 4 If 53–63 20.75 5 If 64–87 3.59 Employment 0.974 0.159 1 If respondent has full time employment 97.41 0 Otherwise 2.59 Education 12.202 3.137 1 If incomplete secondary education 28.7 2 If complete secondary education 37.07 3 If secondary special education (vocational training) 4.24 4 College/university education 26.30 5 Graduate and higher education 3.69 Marital status 0.686 0.464 1 If married 68.63 0 otherwise 31.37 Number of household members 2.476 1.022 1 If a single person in household 15.70 2 If only a couple in household 40.71 3 If from two and five people in household 43.18 4 If six and eight people in household 0.42 How much real wage respondent received in the past 30 days from his/her full time employmenta 20669.08 15676.03 1 If less than 5000 rubles 4.56 Coding for estimation 2 If 5001– 5000 rubles 39.83 log(income) 3 If 15,001–25,000 rubles 31.65 mean=7.090 Std. dev.=12.612 4 If 25,001–35,000 rubles 13.30 5 If 35,001–45,000 5.74 6 If 45,001–55,000 2.39 7 If 55,001 and above 2.53 Smoking 0.427 0.495 1 If respondent smokes 42.69 0 Otherwise 57.31 Nationality/Ethnicity 0.123 0.328 1 If Russian 87.90 0 If non-Russian 12.10 Life satisfaction 2.550 0.981 1 Fully satisfied 9.96 Coding for estimation: 2 Rather satisfied 47.23 1 if fully or rather satisfied 3 Both yes and no 24.23 0 if otherwise 4 Less than satisfied 14.99 5 Not at all satisfied 3.6 Economic Conditions 3.499 1.106 1 Fully satisfied 3.02 Coding for estimation: 2 Rather satisfied 19.43 1 if fully or 3 Both yes and no 22.35 0 if otherwise rather satisfied 4 Less than satisfied 35.03 5 Not at all satisfied 20.18 Health Status 2.639 0.588 1 Very good 1.30 Coding for estimation: 2 Good 37.79 1 if very good 3 Neither good nor bad 56.76 0 if otherwise or good 4 Bad 3.99 5 Very bad 0.16 Federal Districts 0.125 0.303 1 Central Federal District 24.59 2 Southern Federal District 14.11 3 Northwest. Federal District 7.75 4 Far East Federal District 4.80 5 Siberian Federal District 15.86 6 Ural Federal District 7.01 7 Volga Federal District 22.15 8 North Caucasus Federal District 3.73 Number of observations 3083 -
- a
- Ruble is Russian currency. The 2013 official exchange rate was 31.84 rubles per U.S. dollar.
The
mean age of respondents is 43.7 years which is above t average for the
Russian population. The distribution of gender remains almost equal,
while women slightly exceed males, also in line with Russian population.
The age composition is divided into five cohorts and we may notice that
those respondents who belong to the second and third groups represent
the majority of sample participants. Ninety seven percent of respondents
confirmed that they have full time employment. In terms of education
level those who completed secondary education rank first. Almost one
third have incomplete high school degree and one fourth reported that
they hold college and university education. This generally reflects the
educational level of Russian society where roughly one-quarter of the
population graduates from colleges and universities.
More
than sixty eight percent of respondents say that they are married.
Nearly 40% live in households without any children. This situation of
the Russian population reflects current family status in major Western
nations as well. Forty three percent of sample participants said that
they come from households that include members ranging from two and five
people.
Information on
how much real wage respondents received in the past thirty days is
taken as a proxy for income. In 2013 the reported average real wage
accounted for 20,669.08 rubles (650 US dollars in 2013), which lags a
behind a similar indicator from all G7 industrialized nations. Almost
one fourth reported that their post-tax salaries range within 5001
rubles (157 US dollars) and 15,000 rubles (471 US dollars). More than
thirty percent of respondents confirmed that their real wage was between
15,001 rubles (471 US dollars) and 25,000 rubles (785 US dollars)
accordingly. Only 2.5% of sample participants had income exceeding
55,000 rubles (1774 US dollars).
Russia
is said to be one of the top smoking nations worldwide, which is also
seen with this table. More specifically, more than 40% identify
themselves as regular smokers. An interesting link between smoking and
health status can be noticed as well. Half of the respondents said that
their health status is neither good nor bad.
It
is worth mentioning about life satisfaction and economic conditions.
Despite the fact that more than one-third of respondents said they are
less than satisfied with their economic conditions, almost half of them
seem to be rather satisfied with their lives. Despite Russia being a
multinational country, the vast majority of the sample (87.9%)
identified themselves as Russians.
In
terms of the distribution of survey across federal districts, residents
of the Center and Volga districts, which correspond to a historical
“Russian heartland”, constitute almost half of the sample, while Far
East and North Caucasus represent 4.8% and 3.7% of survey areas
respectively.
4. Methodology
We
utilize logistic regression analysis to proceed further with our
estimations. Logistic regression has become the key empirical tool to
estimate models when the response variable of interest has only two
possible outcomes: zero or one. Compared to the standard regression
technique, the classical assumptions are not valid any more. More
specifically, non-normality of error terms as well as homoscedasticity
of error variance is violated leading to bias and inconsistency of
fitted coefficients. Therefore, in this case ordinary least squares is
not the optimal empirical tool.
The
alternative method of estimation that is generally applied when the
dependent variable is dichotomous is called maximum likelihood. The
method of maximum likelihood is designed to find values of unknown
parameters that maximize the probability of getting the observed set of
data (Hosmer et al., 2013). The model is expressed in the following linear form:
equation 1
where: Yi=1 if the ith respondent consumed fortified wine in the past thirty days. Yi=0 if the ith respondent did not consume fortified wine in the past thirty days. Xi
represents a set of potential socio-demographic, economic and health
indicators as well as dummies for Russia׳s regions affecting the
variable of interest. εi depends on the Bernoulli distribution of the Yi that follows a cumulative logistic distribution with mean zero and variance σ2.
Prob(Yi=1)=F(β′Xi)Prob(Yi=0)=1−F(β′Xi)


The log-likelihood function for logistic regression can be thus expressed in the following way:
The values for β0 and other βs are coefficients that maximize logeL(β).
refers to explanatory variables in matrix form. Estimates for maximum likelihood can be written as b0, b1…, bp−1. Let b denote the vector of the ML estimates:

The fitted values for logistic regression can then be expressed as follows:
where
equation 6
X′b=b0+b1X1+⋯bp−1Xp−1


The empirical representation of the model is thus defined as:
where FWCi refers to fortified wine consumption by ith respondent in the sample.5. Results and discussion
This
section presents fitted coefficients from our logistic regression
analysis and marginal effects of explanatory variables with confidence
intervals (see Table 2).
Prior to estimating our model of interest, we conducted correlations
among covariates and discovered that they are not highly correlated with
each other. The highest is the correlation between education and income
at 0.25. Because of low correlations, the correlation matrix is not
presented here.
- Table 2. Coefficient estimates and marginal effects of the explanatory variables on the odds of fortified wine consumption.
Variable Coefficient estimates Standard error Z-statistic Marginal effect estimates Standard error Z-statistic 95% Confidence Interval
Lower bound Upper bound Intercept −5.799*** 1.682 −3.45 Gender −1.344*** 0.185 −7.25 −0.951*** 0.014 −6.98 −9.061 −2.503 Age 0.119** 0.051 2.33 0.008** 0.004 2.32 −1.708 −0.981 Age squared −0.001* 0.000 −2.03 −0.000* 0.000 −2.03 −0.002 −0.000 Employment −0.073 0.457 −0.16 −0.005 0.032 −0.16 −0.969 −0.823 Education 0.001 0.027 0.01 0.000 0.002 0.01 −0.050 0.051 Married Status −0.363* 0.188 −1.94 −0.026 0.014 −1.93 −0.731 0.005 Household 0.093 0.107 0.87 0.007 0.008 0.87 −0.116 0.302 Log(income) 0.136 0.135 1.01 0.010 0.001 1.01 −0.129 0.401 Smoke −0.178 0.164 −1.08 -−0.126 0.012 −1.08 0.499 0.143 Nationality −0.129 0.216 −0.59 −0.009 0.015 −0.59 −0.553 0.296 Life Satisfaction −0.226 0.152 −1.49 0.004 −0.016 −1.48 −0.524 0.072 Economic Conditions 0.277 0.179 1.54 0.020 0.013 −1.54 −0.076 0.629 Health Status Federal Districts −0.147 0.156 −0.94 −0.010 0.011 −0.94 −0.453 0.159 Center 0.095 0.312 0.30 0.007 0.023 0.30 −0.532 0.722 South −0.467* 0.269 −1.68 −0.023 −0.330 0.02 −0.996 0.006 Northwest −0.217 0.413 −0.40 −0.015 0.029 −0.53 −1.027 0.592 Far East −0.521 0.491 −0.97 −0.037 0.035 −1.18 −1.484 0.441 Siberia −0.033 0.361 −0.08 −0.002 0.025 −0.08 −0.739 0.672 Ural −0.085 0.403 −0.12 −0.06 0.832 −0.12 −0.876 0.705 Volga −0.058 0.351 −0.14 −0.004 0.869 −0.14 −0.746 0.630 North Caucasus −0.829 0.606 −1.37 −0.059 0.172 −1.98 −2.017 −0.358 Log likelihood −790.944 Pseudo R2 0.08 -
- ***
- Significant at the 1% level.
- **
- Significant at the 5% level.
- *
- Significant at the 10% level.
As we may notice from Table 2
the effect of gender on the odds of drinking fortified wine are
negative and significant at the one percent level. This implies that
women are less likely to prefer fortified wine than men as a variety of
alcoholic beverages. Fortified wine generally has a higher content of
ethanol as compared with beer and red wine. Consequently, this alcohol
drink seems to be more popular among Russian men than among women. This
finding confirms earlier studies in literature in which males in Russian
society opt for stronger drinks (Baltagi and Geishecker, 2006 and Keenan et al., 2014).
The
relationship between fortified wine consumption and age and its squared
form reflects a diminishing marginal effect of this particular variable
on Yi. More specifically, age is
positively and significantly connected with fortified wine consumption,
but the negative sign of age in squared form, also statistically
significant, may indicate that as people get mature the odds of
consuming this alcohol drink will tend to decline. For each additional
year of age the logit of fortified wine consumption increases by 0.119,
and is afterwards diminished by −0.001, on average after controlling for
all other variables in the model. More specifically, the finding
reflects the presence of diminishing marginal effect implying that the
fortified wine consumption that is attributed to age increases at a
decreasing rate over time.
The
estimated coefficient for marital status of respondents is
statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Compared with their
single counterparts, married individuals are less likely to drink
fortified wine. In other words, their odds for consuming this product
are less than singles’ by a factor of 0.696 (exp[−0.3629]), after all
other variables remain constant.
Out
of all Russia׳s federal districts the estimated coefficient for South
remains statistically significant at the 10 percent level. The negative
sign means that respondents in the South federal district are less
likely to consume fortified wine than respondents from other districts.
One explanation of this might be that Krasnodar Province located in the
South federal district is known as one of Russia׳s major wine producers.
This province supplies about 40% of the domestically produced wine
products to Russian market (Rosstat, 2015). Therefore, for consumers from this particular region local wine seems to be more preferable.
Other
predictors included in the models did not yield statistically
significant results. Hence, they seem not to influence the likelihood of
consumption of this particular wine product in Russian society.
6. Limitations and future research
The
present study explored some factors associated with fortified wine
consumption in Russia, based on a surveyed sample of the Russian
population. A logistic regression model was used as a primary empirical
tool.
This paper has a
few limitations and further studies in the context of the Russian wine
market should be pursued. Data taken from the Russian Longitudinal
Monitoring Survey reflect overall changes and trends in this country via
regular surveying, and includes analysis of people׳s health status,
dietary intakes, household and community level and region-specific
indicators. This survey is widely used in numerous studies about Russian
economy and society. It does not reflect particular information on the
consumption of alcoholic beverages that would better fit our model.
A
second important point would be to get information on sensory
attributes and consumer perceptions for wine products that would
precisely explain Russians’ preferences and demand for this type of
alcoholic beverage. Further studies might also focus on product origin,
price, label, and brand as they play a crucial role at the time of
consumer purchases and decision- making processes. For this purpose a
product specific survey should be organized, for it would provide more
opportunities for researchers to fit models of their interest and come
up with clear empirical findings.
Some
final words can be expressed in terms of applying more comprehensive
empirical tools. The hedonic price model initially proposed by Rosen (1974) is frequently used in wine product studies; Oczckowski (2011) and Ashenfelter (2008)
pioneered in this field. Furthermore, the contingent valuation method
designed to identify consumer preferences for a chosen product is also
applied in the wine consumption literature. For instance, Yang et al. (2009) utilized this methodology to investigate the Washington State red wines market.
The
prospect for wine products in Russia is promising and we believe that
future research will contribute to existing literature with new and
interesting findings. Companies and businesses may benefit from these
studies as well. They will be well informed on Russians’ attitudes and
preferences and this valuable information will enable them to
successfully promote and target their wine products to the Russian
alcoholic beverages market.
References
- Ashenfelter, 2008
- Predicting the quality and prices of Bordeaux wine
- Econ. J., 118 (2008), pp. 174–184
- Baltagi and Geishecker, 2006
- Rational alcohol consumption addiction: evidence from the Russian longitudinal monitoring survey
- Health Econ., 15 (2006), pp. 893–914
- | |
- Bobak et al., 1999
- Alcohol consumption in a national sample of the Russian population
- Addiction, 95 (6) (1999), pp. 857–866
- | |
- Ceccia et al., 2013
- Country-of-Origin Effects on Russian Wine Markets
- J. Food Prod. Mark., 19 (2013), pp. 247–260
- Herzfeld et al., 2014
- The dynamics of food, alcohol and cigarette consumption in Russia during transition
- Econ. Hum. Biol., 13 (2014), pp. 128–143
- | | |
- Hosmer et al., 2013
- Applied Logistic Regression
- (3rd edition)John Wiley and Sons (2013)
- Keenan et al., 2014
- The impact of alcohol consumption on patterns of union formation in Russia 1998–2010. An assessment using longitudinal data
- Popul. Stud.: J. Demogr., 68 (3) (2014), pp. 283–303
- | |
- Oczckowski, 2011
- Hedonic wine price functions and measurement error
- Econ. Record, 77 (2011), pp. 374–382
- Rosen, 1974
- Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition
- J. Poli. Econ., 82 (1974), pp. 34–55
- | |
- Perman, 2010
- Drinking in transition: trends in alcohol consumption in Russia 1994–2004
- BMC Public Health, 10 (2010), p. 691
- Rosstat, 2015
- Russia in figures 2015
- Federal State Statistics Service, Moscow (2015)
- Tang et al., 2015
- Perception of wine labels by Hong Kong Chinese consumers
- Wine Econ. Policy, 4 (2015), pp. 12–21
- | | |
- Taplina, 2007
- How much does Russia drink? Volume, dynamics, and differentiation of alcohol consumption
- Sociol. Res., 46 (2) (2007), pp. 31–46
- Tekin, 2004
- Employment, wages, and alcohol consumption in Russia
- South. Econ. J., 71 (2) (2004), pp. 397–417
- | |
- Yang et al., 2009
- Willingness to pay for sensory properties in Washington state red wines
- J. Wine Econ., 4 (2009), pp. 81–93
- | |
Copyright © 2016 UniCeSV, University of Florence. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.