Volume 354, 15 October 2015, Pages 309–317
S. Lia, b,
- a Université de Bordeaux, ISVV, UMR1065 Santé et Agroécologie du Vignoble, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, F-33175 Gradignan, France
- b INRA, ISVV, UMR1065, F-33140 Villenave d Ornon, France
- c INRA, UMR 518 MIA, Paris, France
- d AgroParisTech, UMR 518 MIA, Paris, France
- e Ministère de l’Agriculture, de l’Agroalimentaire et de la Forêt, DGAL-SDQPV, Département de la Santé des Forêts, 252 rue de Vaugirard, F-75732 Paris, France
- f INRA, UR633 URZF, F-45075 Orléans, France
- g INRA, UMR1202 BIOGECO, F-33610 Cestas, France
- h Univ. Bordeaux, BIOGECO, UMR 1202, F-33600 Pessac, France
- Received 15 March 2015, Revised 15 May 2015, Accepted 18 May 2015, Available online 9 June 2015
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Highlights
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- The pine processionary moth exhibits a cyclic population dynamics.
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- The return period of outbreaks varies from seven to nine years in France.
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- Outbreaks are not synchronous across the whole country.
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- Synchrony is observed in neighbouring regions with similar climate.
Abstract
Although
many forest Lepidoptera are known to exhibit cyclic outbreaks in
temperate forests, this has never been formally demonstrated for the
pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), the main
insect defoliator of southern Europe. Yet, the demonstration of
periodicity in the population dynamics of forest defoliators is of great
interest for developing predictive risk models. We took advantage of
32 years time series recorded on permanent plots throughout France to
test for the cyclicity of T. pityocampa outbreaks,
estimate the length of cyclic periods and investigate synchrony between
regions. Spectral analysis revealed that a large majority of regions and
clusters of monitoring plots show significantly periodic outbreaks with
a return period of seven to nine years. Outbreaks were not synchronous
across the whole country but in neighbouring regions. Several factors
such as low host tree quality following defoliation, impact of natural
enemies and prolonged diapause might drive the cyclicity of T. pityocampa outbreaks while the Moran effect, here the role of low temperatures, is likely to explain synchrony.
Keywords
- Population dynamics;
- Cyclicity;
- Synchrony;
- Climate;
- Forest;
- Defoliation
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